Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Ohio holds fate of presidency

There is a reason Bush is trying to claim 'victory'... Right now, whoever wins Ohio wins -- period.

And our odds for winning Ohio are not bad. If prior historical patterns hold, then Kerry will be president:
Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221

If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779....
I am actually a lot more hopeful now then when I went to bed earlier this morning. Looks like we have a good shot at returning the favor from 2000 -- an electoral college win despite a loss in the popular vote. Hence, Bush's hastiness in trying to claim victory. It didn't work in Iraq in 2003, and it ain't gonna work in America in 2004.

But it will take time to count all the provisional ballots. I think the GOP Ohio Sec of State said they would not even start for another ten days. The Bush election strategy from 2000 continues: delay results and deny votes.